Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 4.527540 5.394353 6.356075 7.498502 8.814657 10.279376 12.028605
2025-04-06 3.147744 4.279829 5.679443 7.519397 9.854747 12.698636 16.399693
2025-04-13 2.291341 3.500847 5.143343 7.495096 10.726479 14.954614 20.838192
2025-04-20 1.905291 3.212049 5.130416 8.073959 12.380650 18.338547 27.062695
2025-04-27 1.548589 2.861603 4.932236 8.313589 13.542875 21.135296 32.748112
2025-05-04 1.300380 2.612941 4.820734 8.630119 14.812118 24.166901 39.012248
2025-05-11 1.056427 2.306907 4.547465 8.623896 15.548460 26.440432 44.324469
2025-05-18 0.827878 1.968524 4.146937 8.324529 15.745131 27.861785 48.415199
2025-05-25 0.638901 1.656540 3.728383 7.913187 15.676166 28.814460 51.800785
2025-06-01 0.523352 1.468931 3.508585 7.822930 16.136648 30.651349 56.729727
2025-06-08 0.430034 1.305703 3.304393 7.724366 16.555789 32.432621 61.675574
2025-06-15 0.392720 1.270103 3.364568 8.160564 18.016070 36.137071 70.151672
2025-06-22 0.336012 1.170762 3.270486 8.275499 18.895112 38.924386 77.330013
2025-06-29 0.282764 1.065008 3.141758 8.298508 19.598468 41.459216 84.270729
2025-07-06 0.236162 0.963185 3.001284 8.272130 20.194392 43.837921 91.097857
2025-07-13 0.224118 0.967897 3.135147 8.902387 22.238623 49.143073 103.682339
2025-07-20 0.198796 0.919284 3.116773 9.163141 23.507494 53.022643 113.826723
2025-07-27 0.179436 0.885222 3.131822 9.507432 24.992556 57.433668 125.250404
2025-08-03 0.152340 0.811301 3.016129 9.500666 25.679871 60.276096 133.805234
2025-08-10 0.121847 0.709714 2.793150 9.175049 25.588793 61.500141 139.243911
2025-08-17 0.094607 0.607676 2.541874 8.727422 25.150061 61.946829 143.138244
2025-08-24 0.078703 0.549987 2.422174 8.629169 25.548548 64.207961 150.847242
2025-08-31 0.065300 0.497314 2.306201 8.521858 25.909639 66.406959 158.549228